A350 vs 787, 777

Another in a series of the Airbus Innovation Days in Hamburg, Germany, earlier this month….

Airbus predicted that the A350 will capture 50% of the medium twin-aisle market forecast of 5,900 aircraft over the next 2o years, company officials said at the press event.

(As an aside, the same forecast predicts 1,698 Large Aircraft [i.e., A380/747].)

When one considers that the Boeing competition will be the 787, the 777 and its successor, this is a pretty bold forecast.

787 Update, Week of May 26

Testing continues on the 787 as it prepares for first flight in June.

Speculation is rampant over whether the airplane will be ready to fly before, during or after the Paris Air Show (but for clarity, “during” does not mean “at” the air show).

We believe Boeing would dearly love to be able to talk about first flight at the air show. Tests appear to be moving more quickly than anticipated, as reported by Flightblogger in its running countdown to first flight.

We are hearing widely divergent opinions about whether first flight will happen in time for Boeing to discuss it at the air show or not.

USAF regains tanker competition

Update, May 28: Three KC-767Js are now operational with the Japanese Defense air force. The fourth and final tanker has yet to be delivered.

Update, May 26: India reportedly has decided to buy the KC-330 MRTT. It’s widely expected France will select the MRTT as well (no surprise there). Boeing apparently didn’t offer the KC-767 to India and probably won’t waste its time with France.

While Boeing in the previous USAF competition touted the fact that it has delivered a tanker (to Japan) and Airbus hasn’t, and that this would be the ‘year of the tanker’ to get Japan’s four tankers delivered and at least the first of the Italian tankers, the company didn’t offer the International tanker to India.

Anyone know why?

Original Post:

According to this article in Reuters, the US Air Force has regained control over the competition for the KC-X tanker that will be re-run after the Government Accountability Office last year found flaws with its process.

Because of that, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was going to re-run the competition from his office. It looks like the USAF has convinced him that it can run the competition.

The Request for Proposals appears headed toward an issuance in the next 30 days or so.

A sole-source, winner-take-all competition looks like what the USAF will plan for. This supports Gates’ position (probably little surprise there) but is at various with some key Members of Congress, who have been advocating a split buy. Some other key members, including Sen. John McCain, favor a sole-source acquisition.

Oil doubles, it’s good for Airbus and Boeing

The price of oil has doubled off its low of only a few months ago, closing Friday (May 23) at around $61bbl. This is actually good news for Airbus and Boeing (and Bombardier and Embraer) as these companies struggle to protect their skyline (order backlog) over the balance of 2009 and in 2010.

Based on the forecasts that the airline industry will recover in 2010 and 2011, and on the hope that the financial markets will improve next year, Airbus and Boeing have been engaged in high-profile efforts to maintain production rates of the A320 and 737 lines in particular and the A330 and 777 lines as well.