Boeing’s 2012 Current Market Outlook

Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, outlined Boeing’s update for the Current Market Outlook for the 20 years from 2012-2031. Aircraft in the world fleet has nearly tripled from about 6,500 to more than 19,000 today.

(We will post more detail July 5.)

• Fuel prices have forced some regional jets out of the market because they are no longer viable, Tinseth says.
• There will be 13,000km in of high speed rail in China by the end of this year, more than the rest of the world combined.
• By 2020, China will open 97 new airports.
• 60%-80% of travel is tied to GDP and economic demand.
• Passenger travel has historically grown at 5% per year.
• Non-stop, point-to-point, more frequency growing and airplane size is shrinking.
• Expect to see world fleet grow to nearly 40,000 airplanes by 2031. 40% of demand will be for retirements, 60% for growth.
• Replacement market is very, very important for us. 500 retirements last year.
• There will be demand for 940 production freighters.
• China, Asia, Asia-Pacific will grow the fastest. 35% of demand will be here.
• Cargo traffic has been much more volatile because more closely tied to economies. Growth has been steady but has slowed.
• Over next 20 years see demand for 2800 freighters, 940 new, rest conversions. 940 airplanes valued at $250bn.

Q&A

• About Airbus Mobile: I was a salesman and to be successful you have to do three things: it’s about the product and pricing; it’s about people; it’s about your relationship. Your customers are focusing on those things, not the address on your business card. What drives US and North American airlines, it’s about the business case. I don’t see how this drive the business case. You have to ask Airbus about efficiency. They are building airplanes in four different places.
• About the $500bn increase in value over 20 years: We will see some modest up-gauging in single aisle market, from A319/737-700 size to address airport issues to A320/737-800 and will see it go to 737-9/A321. This is driving some of the change. The twin-aisle market sees the strength in the 777-300 size aircraft.
• On the twin-aisle market: it’s split about 50-50 between small twins and large twins, a little heavier toward large twins. Long-term expect shifting up from 787-8 to -9 and -10.
• On Very Large Aircraft: demand down about 1%. Big airplanes are operated by a handful of carriers in a handful of markets. We’ve probably been a little optimistic in this. A380 after 10 years has sold about where we expected (there are 258 sales–editor).

Odds and Ends: Coverage on Airbus’ Mobile move and other thoughts

Randy Tinseth, VPO of Marketing for Boeing, is always fast with the quip–via Flight Global’s Twitter: “Market is about product, people and customers, not the address on your business card.”

Mobile Press-Register: general overview.

Reuters: Unions aren’t happy–but guess what, it’s US unions.

Chicago Tribune: Boeing’s home-town paper has this about Boeing losing a tactical edge–according to Airbus.

The Economist: Slaps Boeing and Airbus for their continued bickering over trade. Hear, hear.

Searching for Amelia

Like many, we’re fascinated with the search for Amelia Earhart, which has resumed. Here are some articles.

Reuters

BBC

Christian Science Monitor