Odds and Ends: Qantas cancels 35 787s; 787 program upswings; 777X development slows
Qantas Airways: The troubled airline canceled 35 787-9s. Stories in Google News from all over.
Update: David Strauss at UBS re-issued his April note analyzing over/under orders for all Airbus-Boeing models. In his cover email, Strauss today referred readers to the 787 section. Excerpts:
At 859 aircraft from 56 customers, 787 accounts for roughly two-thirds of Boeing’s widebody backlog. Assuming Boeing hits its planned 10/month 787 production rate by end of 2013, we estimate Boeing has roughly eight years of production in backlog. By region, Asia accounts for the largest percentage of the 787 backlog at 38%, with the remainder fairly evenly split between North America, Europe and the Middle East. We estimate that roughly 73% of the 787 backlog has been ordered for growth as compared to 27% for replacement.
Our analysis indicates Boeing’s 787 customers are in a net over-ordered position of roughly 400 aircraft or 29% of their combined widebody backlog. 787 customers that we have identified as being over-ordered include Singapore, Aeroflot, Qatar, Gulf Air, Qantas, Air China, Vietnam and United, while BAIberia, Etihad, China Eastern, Jet, Oman, Uzbekistan and Saudi appear under-ordered. Although our analysis indicates Delta is under-ordered on widebodies, we don’t expect Delta to order more 787s as it has already deferred its existing 787 orders indefinitely.
787 upswings: Aspire Aviation has a long piece on the 787 program.
777X Development: Dominic Gates has this story about the slowing of 777X development. This is very similar to what we’ve been hearing from a variety of sources. Update, 7:25pm PDT: Randy’s Blog (Randy Tinseth) refutes Dominic’s article with a memo from Ray Conner, president of BCA. As we noted in this item, Dominic’s reporting is similar to what we’ve been hearing–including as late as Tuesday of this week. We’ll also observe, for what it’s worth, that this seems to be unfolding in a scenario very similar to the New Small Airplane/737 MAX timeline. If nothing else, the customers seem to have an understanding that appears to be “evolving.”