Odds and Ends: KC-46A and Sequester; Stopping Li-Ion fires–or not; Analysts views on FAA action

KC-46A and Sequester: The US House hopes to spare the Boeing KC-46A from Sequester.

Stopping Lithium-Ion Battery Fires: Christine Negroni, who has written for the New York Times and a number of other publications and who has her own blog, Flying Lessons, reports that it’s not possible to prevent lithium-ion battery fires to the one in one billion chances.

Design News has a story that we’re linking here. The story itself is several days old and offers nothing new but its links at the bottom to a series of stories about lithium-ion batteries are what caught our attention and which we thought might be of interest to readers.

Analyst views on the FAA 787 action: Here is what some of the analysts are saying about the FAA clearance for Boeing to proceed with testing the battery solutions:

BB&T Capital

The FAA has officially agreed to test whether Boeing’s redesigned battery system complies with the applicable safety regulations and special conditions. And while the

FAA press release stresses that this approval is only but a “first step” in a process that will involve “extensive testing”, Boeing management’s confidence that (1) their proposed plan will address all of the regulators’ concerns; and (2) the implementation of the fix will be quick once approved by the FAA is sufficient evidence for us to reject our prior thesis that a much longer re-certification process (6 months minimum) is more likely. If all of the FAA’s stringent tests are passed, with no new issues raised, we believe it is fair to assume that this testing could be completed in 5-7 weeks. Accordingly, we are raising our rating from Underweight to Hold.

Bernstein

We do not expect the certification of the new battery design to take a long time. Although the certification plan will require testing and analysis to ensure compliance with the FAA’s safety regulations and special conditions, we understand that some airlines believe 787s could be flying as early as the end of May. Boeing also appears confident that it can meet the FAA’s requirements quickly.

Goldman Sachs

Boeing announced that it has received approval from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of the company’s plan to test and certify improvements to the 787 battery system. We believe this is an important step towards the resumption of commercial 787 flights and new 787 deliveries. However, a recertification will likely take months to complete and therefore near-term uncertainty also remains on the program.

Imperial Capital

It now appears likely that Boeing will be able to have the grounding lifted on the 787 in May, assuming that there are no issues that arise as part of the re-testing process. The company is stressing that it is a matter of weeks, not months, for the solution to be implemented. We believe that Boeing is close to having production ready batteries that reflect the re-design, considering the number of people Boeing has had in Japan working with the battery supplier on the proposed solution. Next steps for Boeing are to get the current fleet of 50 ready to fly, then incorporate the fix into the current aircraft in inventory so that Boeing can resume 787 deliveries, and then finally work the battery changes into the supply chain for in production aircraft.

• The Wall Street Journal writes, “If all goes well, commercial 787 flights could resume by early May, according to industry and government officials.”

Odds and Ends: Tanker-like redux; Ryanair’s 200 737s; new use for Winglet

Tanker-like Redux: As you read this story, it sounds a lot like Boeing vs EADS, right down to the build-it-in-the-USA element.

Ryanair’s 200 737s: News emerged that Ryanair will firm up an order soon for 200 Boeing 737s. This has been hanging “out there” for some time. We learned of this likelihood a couple of months ago. It was all hush-hush while Ryanair took another run at Aer Lingus.

Pan Am landmark: For those filled with nostalgia, this news is sad: the famed Pan Am Worldport faces the wrecking ball.

New Winglet use: This is pretty cool. Via Steve Trimble of Flight Global.

KC-46A contract “restructure,” Blue Angels grounded in Sequestration (very local to Seattle)

The US Air Force will have to “restructure” the USAF KC-46A tanker contract with Boeing if Sequestration hits on March 1, according to a new document issued today. The document doesn’t indicate what “restructure” means, but we’d guess the fixed price deal that won Boeing the contract will eventually become a lot more expensive to taxpayers.

Very localized to Seattle, Sequestration also means the Blue Angels will likely be grounded by the Navy as well. This aerobatic group has been a staple of the local Sea Fair for decades, and has been a key in public relations for the Air ForceNavy. While we acknowledge the Blue Angels have nothing to do with readiness, since we live in Seattle, and this is our blog, we get to be highly provincial once in a while.

Odds and Ends: Progress on the KC-46A; Southwest and AirTran; British Air’s A380

KC-46A Progress: National Defense magazine has this update on progress of the Boeing KC-46A tanker. According to the article, progress is proceeding well.

Southwest Airlines and AirTran: Southwest Airlines is the USA’s legacy low-cost carrier, and it has grown through selected mergers. The acquisition of LCC AirTran fills a big gap in Southwest’s system (the Southeast) and is the most ambitious effort yet. This article wonders if it’s too much.

British Airways’ A380: BA has revealed its interior plans for the Airbus A380. The news article is here. BA becomes another airline to configure the super-jumo with fewer than 500 seats.

Cattle Car: Airbus is looking at a 236-seat configuration for its A321, using 28-inch seat pitch. Ouch.

KC-30 performing well for Australia; Boeing C17, Lockheed C130, Alenia C27J

The Airbus KC-30 is performing well, according to this article. Here is a PDF of the report referenced in the article: Airbus Tanker Proves Its Worth

The same writer prepared this piece on transport aircraft, including the Boeing C17, Lockheed C130 and Alenia C27J (purchased and subsequently rejected by the US DOD).