Boeing 737 MAX update

Update: Aviation Week has this piece that has some good close-ups of artwork.

Boeing held a tele-conference updating the 737 MAX program. Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the 737 Program are Michael Teal gave the briefing.

Beverly Wyse (BW)

Michael Teal (MT)

BW: 737 MAX has met firm design concept. Honeywell will provide an electronic bleed air system. Flight deck will have large displays from Rockwell Collins. MAX production will have future growth capability.

MT: We have in place a plan to preserve training commonality with large flight deck displays. We engage with regulators for training regulations and feel this will not be an issue.

Development team made significant progress to have aerodynamic design. We removed nose gear door bump from earlier iterations. We can get longer gear within the wheel well. LEAP 1B reached architectural freeze in September, freezing fan size and core size. Final design freeze will be in April 2013.

With the completion of firm concept, the completion of production design can move forward.

BW: It is important we maintain stability in our production plan. The 737 MAX transition allows us to maintain stability with NG rate increases and into the MAX.

Q&A:

BW: Third production line begins in 2015 with construction of first flight test aircraft. Eventually will use the third line for future rate increases beyond the planned 42 a month.

MT: Will only offer radial tires on nose gear, nose gear retracts further into the wheel well.

MT: 13% fuel reduction is a per-seat off the 737NG from today’s most efficient NG (19% better than original 1997 NG.) MAX will continue with the same maintenance cost as today’s NG.

MT: Goal is to have the same field performance as NG.

BW: 737-7 MAX: Many of our customers select a primary model but have substitution rights into other model. We see the -7 as being part of a family of aircraft where airlines can use -7 on thinner routes. It also serves missions in high-hot regions, such as in Tibetan plateau. We see the -7 serving these critical missions. I would no say “no question” that we will build it, but customers have asked about it and it is in our family today.

MT: Flight test plans for -8 will have four test planes. Expect to have two flight test airplanes for the -9 and -7.

BW: Part of the reason for more flight test airplanes is to proceed as fast as possible.

MT: Can’t give you at this time an exact count of the amount of change of MAX vs NG. This is part of the design process between now and the middle of next year.

MT: This airplane is an amended type certification, do not see re-certification.

[Editor: UBS Securities issued a new research note even as the teleconference was proceeding, with this comment:

[Systems changes represent onset of scope creep: This morning BA announced that it had achieved “Firm Concept” on 737 MAX including new bleed air system from HON, new tail cone, new winglets, and surprise move to upgrade 737 NG displays from HON with 787 large format displays from COL. BA’s move to incorporate updated systems beyond the engine represents a departure from its stated strategy of minimal design changes on 737 MAX.

[When MAX was announced, former CEO of BCA Jim Albaugh said he wanted minimal changes. The MAX has, for some time, appeared to be undergoing design creep, hence the questions about commonality and re-certification.]

BW: Right now we are saying 2017 EIS, [Southwest Airlines previously told us 4Q17, Jim Albaugh hoped to advance this schedule); as we move forward we will get more definitive about the schedule.

But what of the runway performance?

Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times has this story in which he has the following observation:

Wyse revealed that Boeing, through structural efficiencies, has also beefed up the allowed maximum take-off weights for the three MAX variants.

Each is 5,000 to 7,000 lbs heavier than the maximum take-off weights of the current 737s.

That means each 737 MAX model, even though heavier than the corresponding current model of the 737NG, can either carry a heavier payload or carry more fuel and so fly farther.

This is good. But we’re hearing from airlines that runway performance may be worse than the 737NG. The airplane is heavier but the wing is the same and the engine thrust is still somewhat of a mystery. CFM International, maker of the LEAP-1B that will power the MAX, lists thrust on its website of 20,000-28,000 lbs without identifying the sub-types and thrust to which the engines will be applied.

These thrust ratings are similar to those now on the NG, rather than being increased to compensate for the increased weight.

One airline tells us that runway performance for the -8 MAX and -9 MAX is longer than the -800 and -900. (The airline is not considering the -7 MAX and doesn’t have the -700.) This, the airline tells us, makes the airplanes problematic at some airports it serves.

This illustrates the dilemma Boeing and CFM have with the physically-constrained 737. CFM could build any engine it wants that would get the job done. It has, after all, two LEAP engines in development for the COMAC C919 and the Airbus A320neo. But the 737 presents special challenges and CFM is constrained unless Boeing lifts the entire airplane with new main gear. But this would mean a new wing box and associated structural changes, adding significantly to the cost. And Boeing won’t to this.

There’s still a lot about MAX we don’t know. And many customers are also waiting for the information.

No plateau on 737NG: Boeing

“There is no plateau in interest on the 737NG,” says Boeing’s Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the stalwart program.

“Even though there are a lot of challenges in the industry, the growth, particularly in the single aisle market in emerging markets and Low Cost Carriers, continues to give us a lot of confidence the demand is out there. Even with the struggles in Europe, there seems to be a little tension between replacement demand and growth demand. We don’t see any pullback in the demand on the 737 at our current production rates or a weakness in demand as we transition to the MAX.”

Wyse gave this assessment during a briefing to the media in advance of the Farnborough Air Show. The briefings were embargoed until July 5.

“Basically we are full all the way through to the middle of 2016. We do have some capacity left in 2016 and 2017 prior to the introduction of the MAX,” she said. “We do have some NGs out in 2018 but that capacity is filling up. We still have customers coming in for NG and MAX four or five or six years out.”

She predicted there will be a two-three year transition period of NG and MAX overlap, though she prefers two years. Wyse acknowledged that the 737-based BBJ and P-8A Poseidon could further extend production of the NG even if passenger models are discontinued.

Aircraft demand: Comparing the Big Four OEMs

(Note: The Market Outlook information was released July 3; this piece contains information that was embargoed to July 5.)

Boeing updated its 20 year forecast, from 2012-2031, upping the total market demand about 600 airplanes.

In its annual release just before a major international air show, in this case Farnborough, Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing, said the latest numbers forecast a requirement of 34,000 through 2031 with a value of $4.5 trillion.

This breaks down:

Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2012-2031
Category	Number/Share	Value ($ Billions)/Share
Very Large Aircraft (>400 seats)	740/2%	260/6%
Twin Aisle (201-400 seats)	7,950/24%	2,070/46%
Single Aisle (91-200 seats)	23,240/68%	2,040/46%
Regional Jets (70-90 seats)	2,020/6%	80/2%

This is more optimistic than the 20 year forecast by Airbus. The most recent Airbus forecast—2011-2030—forecast only 26,921 aircraft, more than 7,000 fewer than Boeing—but Airbus does not forecast regional jets nor below 100 seats.

Boeing envisions third parallel line for 737 Max

Here are the stories we did for FlightGlobal on Boeing’s hitting Rate 35 for the 737.

Boeing may assemble the re-engined 737 Max in the same facility as it builds the 737 NG family of aircraft in Renton, Washington.

Beverly Wyse, 737 programme vice-president and general manager, said a potential third line for the Max would be placed in Renton with the two existing lines by relocating engine, empennage and line work staging areas positioned between Line 1 and a mezzanine that runs the length of the building.

Commercial production at Renton is split between two lines in the 4-481 building. Line 1, the wider of the two lines, would likely play host to Line 3 for the 737 Max.